The problem is that the same polls indicate that there will be a massive difference between the percentage of Biden and Trump supporters who will vote early. Biden supporters are much likely to cast an early ballot.
The issue is that we really don’t know the extent to which the early vote will be more Democratic-leaning than the overall tally. There’s no history of early voting during a pandemic. Moreover, just because we know the party affiliation of the voters returning ballots in some states doesn’t mean we know they’re voting for.
And remember, a vote cast on Election Day is worth the exact same as a vote cast early.
I can recall a lot of Democrats were giddy that more registered Democrats had voted early in Florida.
But it was Trump who won overwhelmingly with Election Day voters and carried both states.
You could see how a similar situation might unfold in Florida this year. A lot more Democrats are voting early in Florida than Republicans, while Republicans seem to want to wait in the Sunshine State.
How is that possible? Trump was leading among those who said they’d vote on Election Day by 56 points.
Just be careful in trying to figure out who is going to win from early voting statistics. Biden is likely to win, but the reason to think that is the polls.
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