Italy vs. England odds, line, best bets: Proven model reveals picks for Sunday’s UEFA Euro 2020 final

England will have the home crowd on its side, but Italy brings a 33-game unbeaten streak into Sunday’s Euro 2020 final at Wembley Stadium. England has never won the European Championships, while Italy’s only title came in 1968. The Three Lions, in fact, have not played in a major tournament final since they won the 1966 World Cup at Wembley. The Italians have made the Euro final two other times and have won four World Cups, the most recent in 2006. Both teams needed extra time to advance. Italy beat Spain in a shootout after a 1-1 stalemate in Tuesday’s semifinal, while Harry Kane buried the rebound of his penalty midway through extra time to beat Denmark 2-1 on Wednesday.

Kickoff from London is set for 3 p.m. ET. England is the +160 favorite (risk $100 to win $160) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Italy vs. England odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while Italy is the +210 underdog. The over-under for total goals scored is set at 1.5. Before locking in any Italy vs. England picks, be sure to check out the Euro 2020 predictions from SportsLine’s proprietary European soccer model.

Created by two Norwegians — professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim — the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine last year, the algorithm is up more than $8,500.

Now, the model has set its sights on Italy vs. England at the Euro 2020 final and locked in its best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for England vs. Italy:

  • Italy vs. England spread: England -0.5 (+155)
  • Italy vs. England over-under: 1.5 goals (over -190, under +155)
  • Italy vs. England 90-minute money line: Italy +210, England +160, Draw +190
  • Italy: The Azzurri are 3-1-0 all-time in major tournaments against England.
  • England: The Three Lions are 15-1-1 in their last 17 matches at Wembley. 

Why you should back England

Kane and Raheem Sterling are among the most talented attackers on the planet, but the Three Lions also have been playing lights-out defense. Jordan Pickford has posted clean sheets in 13 of his past 20 starts, and Harry Maguire and John Stones have anchored an impenetrable back line. England has outscored its opponents 25-2 during a 12-game unbeaten run (11-1-0). It rose to the occasion in a 2-0 victory against rival Germany in a huge match in the Round of 16, with Kane and Sterling scoring and the defense holding the Germans to three shots on target.

England followed that with a 4-0 drubbing of Ukraine, with Kane scoring twice more and Maguire knocking in a header. Maguire is strong on set pieces and could cause Italy problems. The Italians yielded their first goal of the tournament on a corner against Austria and conceded another that was ruled offside. England also has pace on the flanks, and Bukayo Saka, Jadon Sancho, Jack Grelaish and Phil Foden could run an aging Italian defense ragged. Meanwhile, midfielders Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips will hound their talented Italian counterparts all day.         

Why you should back Italy 

The Azzurri has been cruising since a failure to make the 2018 World Cup led to the hiring of Roberto Mancini as manager. The team has lost just twice under the former Manchester City boss and is on a current 33-game unbeaten run. It has 23 clean sheets over that span while only being kept off the score sheet twice. The middle defensive pairing of Juventus teammates Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci has been one of the world’s best for more than a decade, and midfielders Marco Verratti, Nicolo Barella and Jorginho are all relentless end-to-end players.

Italy has lost to England eight times in 27 all-time meetings, but six of those came before 1980. The teams have met twice in Euro competition, with Italy prevailing both times. The last time was in the 2012 semifinals, when they played to a scoreless draw before Italy won in a shootout. The Italians lost to Spain 4-0 in the final to finish as the runner-up for the second time since their only win in 1968. The Italian attack has the pace to cause England some trouble, with Federico Chiesa emerging as a strong complement to Serie A stars Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne. 

How to make Italy vs. England Euro 2020 picks

The model is leaning under on the total and has also locked in strong money-line and spread picks. You absolutely need to see them before you lock in your own Euro 2020 picks.

So who wins Italy vs. England? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the England vs. Italy money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that’s up over $8,500.

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