Soccer

Corner Picks: Best weekend soccer bets with Bayern Munich-Stuttgart, West Ham-Arsenal and more

It’s a big week for Corner Picks as the Bundesliga makes its column debut. This is for two reasons. One is that I’ve found a winning formula for betting on Bayern Munich, and I figured it was about time I shared it with all of you. The other is that, well, it’s a limited slate this weekend in the Premier League with the FA Cup going, and I don’t have many options to choose from.

Oh, and have I mentioned that the column is out of the red? Yep, we put together another winning week last weekend, going 3-1. The only loss was our four-team parlay, and even that came close. The only loss we suffered was PSG losing to Nantes, and that involved some extenuating circumstances to say the least. I guess we’ll just have to be perfect this week instead.

All odds are via the William Hill Sportsbook, and all times listed are eastern.

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Bayern Munich vs. Stuttgart, Saturday, 10:30 a.m, ESPN+

If you’ve been following the Champions League editions of Corner Picks, you probably aren’t surprised to see this play here. The Both Teams To Score Prop has been a bit of a gold mine with Bayern Munich this season. Not counting German cup competitions, Bayern has played 31 matches across the Bundesliga and Champions League. They’ve scored in every single one of them, and they’ve allowed their opponent to score in 25 of them. In other words, if you just bet BTTS in every Bayern match this season, you’re doing very well.

I haven’t done it in every match, but I’ve done it in quite a few! And I’m going to keep riding this money train until it’s derailed. Also, for what it’s worth, while the trend is considerable, this isn’t just a blind play. Bayern beat Stuttgart 3-1 earlier this season, but Stuttgart won the expected goals (xG) battle 1.8-1.0. This team has shown plenty of attacking prowess going against a Bayern side that’s been leaky defensively all season long and is coming off a short week after finishing off Lazio in the Champions League. Pick: Both Teams To Score (-180)

West Ham vs. Arsenal, Sunday, 11 a.m, Peacock

First, I’d like to thank Arsenal for playing their part. We’ve been fading the Gunners all season, but last week we backed them against Tottenham because I had an inkling that Tottenham were frauds despite their improved results of late. Arsenal did precisely as I expected them to, as did Tottenham (more on them coming up). Well, last week was just a pit stop. We’re back to fading Arsenal because while Arsenal are better than Tottenham, that doesn’t mean they’re good.

All right, that’s a bit unfair. Arsenal is a better team now than early in the season, and their loss to Olympiacos in the Europa League this week was misleading. First of all, Arsenal went into the match with a 3-1 lead, so there wasn’t much need for urgency. Secondly, Arsenal were extremely unlucky, as they crushed Olympiacos in the xG battle. All that said, even with the improvement, in this match, I see a lot of value on West Ham. The Hammers have lost two of three, but those losses came against Manchesters City and United. Also, West Ham had a higher xG than Man City did during their 2-1 loss. This West Ham team is still very good and very much in the running for a Champions League place. At this price, they’re hard to pass up. Pick: West Ham (+180)

Latest Odds:

West Ham United
+180

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur, Sunday, 3:30 p.m, NBCSN

Unders have been a solid bet in the Premier League all season long, and Aston Villa have certainly done their part to make it so. Not only have Villa kept a clean sheet in 14 of their 28 Premier League matches, but they’ve struggled to find the back of the net often themselves. Particularly since losing Jack Grealish to injury. Grealish has missed Villa’s last five matches, and they’ve only scored three goals without him in the lineup. Defensively, they’ve remained as strong as always and have allowed only four goals. Grealish is expected to return this weekend, but having been sidelined for over a month, it’s unclear if he’ll start or if he’ll play a full 90 minutes if he does. So I anticipate Villa’s attack continuing to be rusty.

Then there’s Tottenham, a team that is seemingly in revolt. Following their loss to Arsenal last weekend, Spurs dropped out of the Europa League with a 3-0 loss to Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday that required extra time. Jose Mourinho was critical of his team following the Arsenal loss, and things aren’t any better now. Meanwhile, the players look like they’ve had enough of the Mourinho experience. All in all, it looks like this team is about to implode, if it hasn’t already. Maybe they funnel all that energy into something useful and explode for three goals in this match (with the talent they have, it cannot be ruled out), or maybe we see this team quit on its manager for good. Whatever happens, I’m taking the under. Pick: Under 2.5 (-105)

Money Line Parlay of the Week

We’re leaving PSG out this week as punishment. Hopefully, they learn their lesson. This week’s parlay is paying +123

  • Borussia Dortmund (-225)
  • Juventus (-560)
  • Lille (-320)

Record

Units

Last Week

3-1

+3.21

Overall

31-39

+1.28



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