NBA Western Conference finals: Mavericks vs. Warriors odds, Game 3 picks, prediction from expert on 88-34 roll

The Golden State Warriors look to place a stranglehold on the 2022 Western Conference finals on Sunday evening. Leading 2-0 in the series, the Warriors visit the Dallas Mavericks for Game 3. Dallas aims to bounce back while playing in front of its home fans for the first time in the series. Andrew Wiggins (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Warriors, with Gary Payton II (elbow), Andre Iguodala (back), and James Wiseman (knee) ruled out. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) remains out for the Mavericks.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Dallas. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Mavericks as 2.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 218.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks and NBA playoff predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 88-34 his last 122 NBA money line picks, returning over $3,248 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Warriors vs. Mavericks, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -2.5
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 218.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -145, Warriors +125
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • GSW: The Warriors are 7-6 against the spread in playoff games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 9-6 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

Why the Warriors can cover

Dallas has had no answers for Golden State through two games. The Warriors are out-scoring the Mavericks by more than 17 points per 100 possessions in the series, and Golden State’s offense has been virtually unstoppable. Golden State is scoring 1.22 points per possession against Dallas and more than 1.15 points per possession in the 2022 NBA playoffs. The Warriors lead the postseason in assists per game (27.9) and assist percentage (65.6 percent), with Golden State pulling down more than 28 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass. 

Stephen Curry, who led the NBA in 3-pointers this season, scored 32 points and converted six 3-pointers in Game 2, and the Warriors are making shots at an obscenely high level. The Warriors have a 65.4 percent true shooting mark in the series and a 60.1 percent mark in the playoffs. Golden State is shooting 49.4 percent from the floor and 38.2 percent from 3-point range in the postseason, and the Warriors are averaging 53 points in the paint per game against Dallas.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is a stout defensive team, ranking in the top eight of the NBA in overall efficiency during the regular season and leading the league in 3-pointers allowed. In the postseason, the Mavericks are allowing even fewer triples (9.9 per game), and Dallas is excellent in transition, limiting opponents to only 8.5 fast break points per game. Golden State has issues with ball security, ranking No. 29 in the NBA in turnover rate during the regular season and giving the ball away on 15.8 percent of possessions in the playoffs. 

On the other end, Dallas is tremendous in avoiding turnovers, committing only 10.6 giveaways in the playoffs after a top-three mark in the NBA this season. The Mavericks also own a 58.1 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs, headlined by 37.9 percent from 3-point range during the postseason run. Dallas is led by a true superstar in Luka Doncic, fresh off a 42-point, eight-assist effort in Game 2. Doncic is putting up 31.4 points, 9.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game in the playoffs, and he is a clear X-factor for Dallas.

How to make Warriors vs. Mavericks picks

For Game 3 of the Western Conference finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who has crushed his NBA picks, and find out. 

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