NBA

Clippers vs. Heat odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, Jan. 28 predictions from model on 69-40 roll

The Los Angeles Clippers visit the Miami Heat on Thursday evening in a game marked by short-handed rosters. Kawhi Leonard (protocols), Paul George (protocols) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are out for the Clippers, leaving the team short-handed on the road. Miami is on the second night of a back after losing on Wednesday. For Miami, Jimmy Butler (protocols), Tyler Herro (neck) and Goran Dragic (groin) each missed Wednesday’s tilt and are considered day-to-day.

Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET in Miami. William Hill Sportsbook lists Miami as a four-point home favorite, down 1.5 points from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215 in the latest Clippers vs. Heat odds. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Clippers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 69-40 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Clippers vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Heat vs. Clippers:

  • Clippers vs. Heat spread: Heat -4
  • Clippers vs. Heat over-under: 215 points
  • Clippers vs. Heat money line: Heat -165; Clippers +145
  • LAC: The Clippers are 5-3 against the spread in road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Latest Odds:

Miami Heat
-4

Why the Clippers can cover

L.A. has myriad scoring options, including Lou Williams, Luke Kennard, Marcus Morris and others. That helps to buoy the team in the absence of Leonard and George, and the Clippers are facing a Miami team that is allowing 1.11 points per possession, a bottom-10 figure in the league this season. On the defensive side, the matchup is also friendly, as the Heat enter this game with the No. 27 offense in the NBA, scoring only 105.1 points per 100 possessions. 

Miami has the worst turnover rate (17.2 percent) in the league and the second-worst mark in offensive rebound rate (21.3 percent). Considering the Clippers currently lead the NBA in second chance points allowed (9.7 per game), there is reason to believe L.A. will dominate in that category, providing a potential edge overall.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is led by Bam Adebayo, who projects to be the best player available for either team in this matchup. The All-Star big man is averaging 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and an impressive 5.5 assists per game, all while providing stellar defense. As a team, Miami ranks second in the league in assist rate (67.3 percent) and sixth in true shooting percentage (58.2 percent). 

The Heat are also solid in a few defensive categories, including a top-10 mark in turnover creation rate at 15.0 percent. Miami is stellar at keeping opponents off the free throw line, and L.A. is a below-average offensive rebounding team, which could pave the way for the Heat to close possessions effectively.

How to make Clippers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 213 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Clippers? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.



 

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