Celtics vs. Nuggets odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, April 11 predictions from model on 93-59 roll

The Boston Celtics travel west to take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday afternoon. The two teams are in the playoff hunt in their respective conferences, with the Nuggets riding high. Denver is on an eight-game winning streak, and the Nuggets are 18-9 in home games this season. Jamal Murray (knee) is questionable for Denver, with Jaylen Brown (knee) and Jayson Tatum (illness) listed as questionable for Boston. Evan Fournier (protocols) is out for the Celtics.

Tip-off is at 3 p.m. ET in Denver. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as seven-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Nuggets odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it has returned almost $8,900 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season, and dating back to last year, it entered Week 16 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 93-59 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Nuggets. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Nuggets vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -7
  • Celtics vs. Nuggets over-under: 221.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -280, Celtics +240
  • BOS: The Celtics are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is a strong offensive team, headlined by the dynamic duo of Tatum and Brown. Tatum scored 53 points in Boston’s win over Minnesota on Friday, and he is averaging 25.7 points per game. Brown adds 24.3 points per game with 39.9 percent shooting from 3-point range, and the Celtics are scoring 113.3 points per 100 possessions this season. As a team, Boston is excellent from long range, connecting on 37.7 percent of shots from beyond the arc, and the Celtics are No. 3 in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (29.3 percent). 

On the defensive side, Boston is No. 7 in the league in assists allowed, giving up only 23.5 per game, and the Celtics are above-average in both steals (8.0 per game) and blocks (5.2 per game). Denver’s offense is dynamic, but the Nuggets are just 29th in the NBA in free throw creation, and the Celtics should be able to keep the Nuggets away from the charity stripe.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver is an elite offensive team by any measure. The Nuggets are scoring more than 1.17 points per possession for the season, ranking No. 3 in the NBA, and they are No. 2 in the league in generating second-chance opportunities by grabbing 29.7 percent of their own missed shots. Nikola Jokic is arguably the NBA’s best offensive player this season, averaging 26.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 8.8 assists per contest. Denver is a top-five team in field goal percentage (49.0 percent), two-point percentage (55.2 percent) and 3-point percentage (38.9 percent), and Nuggets are No. 2 in the league in producing 27.2 assists per game. 

On the defensive side, Mike Malone’s team is No. 2 in the NBA in limiting second-chance points (11.1 per game), No. 6 in steals (8.1 per game) and No. 7 in points allowed in the paint (45.1 per game). The Nuggets can also take solace in Boston’s weakness as a passing team, with the Celtics averaging only 23.3 assists per game this season.

How to make Nuggets vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 220 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 93-59 roll on NBA picks.

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