NBA

2021 NBA Finals: Suns vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 6 predictions from model on 100-66 roll

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks welcome Devin Booker, Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns to Fiserv Forum for Game 6 of the 2021 NBA Finals on Tuesday. The Bucks lead the NBA Finals by a 3-2 margin after a clutch Game 5 win on the road. Milwaukee rode tremendous efforts from its three stars to a win, taking control of the series. Phoenix is now in must-win mode as the Suns step into a hostile road environment.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a five-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 222 in the latest Suns vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Suns vs. Bucks picks and NBA Finals 2021 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $600 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the final week of the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Suns picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks:

  • Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5 
  • Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 222 points 
  • Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -200, Suns +175 
  • PHX: The Suns are 6-3 against the spread in the last nine road game 
  • MIL: The Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven home games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix is a tremendous offensive team, which was clear in their Game 5 loss. The Suns scored 1.29 points per possession on Saturday, committing a turnover on fewer than 10 percent of possessions, while generating a 64.8 percent true shooting mark. Booker led the way with 40 points in Game 5, and the Suns have myriad options to stretch opposing defenses. 

Dating back to the regular season, Phoenix posted an offensive rating of 116.3 points per 100 possessions, with elite-tier shooting metrics to go along with top-five marks in assists and turnover avoidance. While it could be accurate to suggest Phoenix isn’t likely to fully repeat its Game 5 shooting performance, which included 13-of-19 from 3-point range, as the series shifts to Milwaukee, it’s also worth pointing out that the Suns are a better defensive team than some may think. Phoenix is allowing fewer than 1.1 points per possession during the 2021 NBA Playoffs, and Milwaukee’s shooting has waxed and waned at times during its playoff push.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s defense is tremendous, and it has played an enormous role in the Bucks taking control of the series. The Bucks continue to lead the NBA Playoffs 2021, even in a larger sample, in defensive rating while allowing only 107.4 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee has a stellar 76.4 percent defensive rebound rate, and the Bucks lead the NBA Playoffs in free-throw rate allowed (0.196). The Suns are the second-worst playoff team at generating free throws, and the Bucks are also a top-three postseason team in turnover creation defensively. That combination allows Milwaukee to dominate the possession battle, inherently creating more shot attempts per game than their opponents. 

In addition, the Bucks are excellent at minimizing opportunities for the opposition in specialized situations. Milwaukee is near the top of the league in fast-break points allowed (8.5 per game), points in the paint allowed (39.3 per game) and assists allowed (21.2 per game) during the playoffs. Phoenix has high-level shotmaking prowess, but the Bucks are winning the analytical battle through five games.

How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the point total, with Mikal Bridges and Bobby Portis projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get that NBA Finals Game 6 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Suns vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.



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