2021 NBA Finals: Suns vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 5 predictions from model on 100-66 roll

The 2021 NBA Finals began as a best-of-seven series but, beginning with Game 5 on Saturday night, the matchup is now a best-of-three. The Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks are tied at 2-2 after four games, with the series shifting back to Arizona. The Suns won the first two games at home, taking control of the series. The Bucks then answered with back-to-back wins at Fiserv Forum, including a comeback victory in Game 4 on Wednesday.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Phoenix. William Hill Sportsbook lists Phoenix as the four-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 218 in the latest Bucks vs. Suns odds. Before making any Suns vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $600 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the second week of the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Suns picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the NBA odds and betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -4 
  • Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 218 points 
  • Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -165, Bucks +145 
  • MIL: The Bucks are 3-6 against the spread in the last nine road games 
  • PHX: The Suns are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight home games

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Game 4 was a reminder of Milwaukee’s notable resilience. The Suns shot more than 50 percent from the floor and shot a higher percentage from 3-point range, with the Bucks struggling to find their shooting form. However, Mike Budenholzer’s team did all of the little things to secure a badly needed home win. The Bucks dominated the rebounding battle, grabbing 17 of their own missed shots to only five offensive rebounds for the Suns. The Bucks also maintained a 17-5 edge in the turnover battle, lowering their turnover rate to just 9.5 percent in the series. 

As a result, Milwaukee attempted 19 more shots than Phoenix, which did enough to bridge the gap in shooting efficiency. Some of that can also be attributed to Khris Middleton, who enjoyed a dominant performance with 40 points. He took on a significant workload with 33 shot attempts, and Middleton’s showing overcame a shaky shooting effort from Jrue Holiday. In looking ahead to Game 5, the Bucks can also lean on an elite defense, with the No. 1 overall mark in defensive efficiency during the NBA Playoffs 2021.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix has been an effective two-way team all season. The Suns are widely regarded as an elite offensive team, but they are also stingy defensively, yielding only 108.1 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. That is the No. 3 mark in the entire league during the postseason, and opponents maintain only a 50.0 percent effective field-goal shooting mark against Phoenix — which is the No. 1 mark in the NBA. 

The Suns are also tremendous offensively, posting a 58.5 percent true shooting clip in the playoffs and a 59.3 percent clip in the 2021 NBA Finals. Phoenix is out-shooting Milwaukee by a considerable margin, and the Suns should revert to the top-five pedigree from the regular season in both assists (26.9 per game) and turnovers (12.5 per game) as they return home. The Suns are 19-7 after a loss this season, and motivation should be as high as ever. In addition, Phoenix’s home-court advantage has been significant during this run, with Monty Williams’ team posting a 35-11 record at Phoenix Suns Arena this season.

How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker projected to exceed their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the NBA Finals Game 5 spread has all the value. You can get this pick only at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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