All of this has happened — and the national political environment has remained stagnant. It’s almost as if no event seems to really change public opinion.
As I noted last month, Biden’s approval rating is the most consistent through the early part of his presidency of any president since World War II. That’s even more the case now than it was in April.
To put this in some recent perspective, look at what was happening during then-President Donald Trump’s first four months in office. Recall that was the presidency in which supposedly nothing mattered.
Trump’s approval rating had moved significantly by this point. He started off with an approval rating of around 45% and was in the 30s by this point.
But it’s not just that Biden’s approval rating is static. Other measures of the political environment are basically where they were last November as well.
Actual special election results are showing the political environment has barely changed since 2020, as well.
The Republican margin in state legislative and congressional special elections is, on average, about 2.5 points better for the GOP than the 2020 presidential result in those districts, when at least one Democrat and one Republican are running.
When only one Democrat and one Republican is running without a significant independent candidate, the Republican margin is on average only about 0.5 points better for the GOP than the 2020 presidential baseline.
These are statistically insignificant differences given that special elections are also about the individual candidates running in them and that they’re not necessarily a perfect random sample across the country.
There had been a clear shift in the national environment toward Democrats that was consistent with other measures. Some things clearly mattered during the early days of the Trump administration.
So far, during the still early days of the Biden White House, nothing seems to have significantly moved public opinion.