The problem stems from how people perceive the boundaries of the track forecast cone.
In general, people perceive areas that are highlighted within the cone as “at risk” and areas that are outside of the cone as being “safe.” Researchers refer to this perceived notion as the “containment effect.”
It has been three and a half weeks since the last advisory was issued for a tropical system in the Atlantic — July 9 for Hurricane Elsa.
So, we typically expect this slow spell. Now we approach the season within the season. The majority of storms are seen from mid-August to mid-October.
This week, even though sea surface temperatures are warm enough for tropical development across the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, dry air and vertical wind shear — the changing of wind speed and direction with height — continue to suppress any new systems emerging.
Seen from Space
West drought update
The highest drought levels worsened and expanded across California and the Pacific Northwest last week as wildfires continue to plague the region.
Exceptional drought — the worst level of drought — covers nearly 50% of California and the population within the worst drought category is now nearly 14.5 million people. Washington and Oregon continue to see record levels of exceptional drought across both states.
Across the Southwest, however, robust monsoon rainfall made a dent in the drought conditions, improving classifications across several states.
Weather number of the week
Weather in focus
Olympics contends with sultry heat in Tokyo
With one more week left before the closing ceremony, temperatures will remain hot and humid with high temperatures climbing as high as 95 degrees and afternoon ‘feels like temperatures’ climbing into the triple digits.