Why there will be many runs scored at Fenway Park tonight, plus other best bets for Tuesday

Have you heard about The Alliance? It’s all the rage in the world of sports! After the SEC shocked the world by luring Oklahoma and Texas away from the Big 12, turning the college football world on its head again, the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 were caught with their pants down. They didn’t see it coming, and they weren’t sure what to do about it, so they did the only thing they can do.

They threw something together in a hurry and gave it a name to serve as its brand without having any idea of its purpose in the world.

Seriously, the three conferences announced their alliance on Tuesday, but details on what it is remain light. They say that this alliance will allow the three conferences to work together regarding future NCAA governance, scheduling and College Football Playoff expansion, but they don’t know what any of that means yet. They just want you to know they exist.

It’s an important life lesson for us all. You don’t have to have a plan; you just have to plan to have a plan at some point, and you have to give that plan a name people can mock to distract from the fact it isn’t a plan at all.

Elsewhere in news:

OK, let’s make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Twins at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Over 10.5 (-105)
: It’s going to be a warm, blustery night at Fenway Park, and not just because the stands will be full of Red Sox fans. The forecast calls for temperatures in the lower 80s and the wind blowing out toward the Green Monster. Fenway is already one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball on its own, ranking second to only Coors Field in Statcast’s Park Factors metric. Toss in weather conditions like tonight’s, and the park plays even smaller.

Of course, if you want more than the weather to rely on for this bet, the pitching matchup doesn’t hurt, either. Griffin Jax starts for Minnesota, and he’s been prone to the long ball this season. Jax has allowed 11 home runs in only 44 innings of work this season. His HR/9 sits at 2.3, which is 77% higher than the league average. Boston’s Tanner Houck has done a much better job in a limited sample size, but his overall minor league numbers suggest he could have difficulty maintaining his hot start.

Key Trend: The over is 34-16-3 in Minnesota’s last 53 games as an underdog.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model has two B-graded plays for tonight’s game. One is on the spread, and the other is on the total.

💰 The Picks


Diamondbacks at Pirates, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Diamondbacks (-115) — 
The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the worst offenses in baseball, but it seems to take the bad to another level when facing left-handed pitching. The Pirates enter tonight with a wRC+ of 78, which is the lowest of any team in the league. Not surprisingly, they also rank last in MLB in isolated power (ISO) against lefties (.123) and HR% (1.93%). The good news is they’re 29th in wOBA at .288, just ahead of the Texas Rangers at .287.

So, yeah, even if Madison Bumgarner isn’t quite the same Madison Bumgarner he once was, this Pirates offense is capable of making him feel young again. As for the Arizona offense, it’s not exactly potent itself, but it does have a high hard-hit rate against righties like Pittsburgh’s J.T. Brubaker. That could be bad news for Pittsburgh, considering Brubaker has allowed 28 home runs in 116.1 innings this season. Only three pitchers have allowed more dingers than Brubaker in 2021.

Key Trend: Arizona has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh.

Rockies at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Cubs (+120) — 
Listen, the Cubs might stink, but I’m fundamentally opposed to the Rockies being favored on the road against anybody. Colorado is 57-68 on the season, but its home/road splits are remarkable. This season, the Rockies are 43-22 at home, which is a 107-win pace over an entire 162-game season. On the road, they’re 14-46. That’s a 38-win pace.

So why in the world are the Rockies favored tonight? Well, as I said, the Cubs stink, but it’s mostly because German Marquez is starting for Colorado. He’s one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, but, like his team, he’s been much better at home. In 15 home starts this season, Marquez has posted an ERA of 3.13 and has somehow managed to allow only seven home runs in 89 innings despite his flyball tendencies. Yet, on the road, his ERA spikes to 4.81, and he’s allowed eight home runs in 31 fewer innings.

Key Trend: The Rockies are 14-46 on the road this season.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model loves one side of the money line in tonight’s game between the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals.

⚾ Tuesday Night Parlay

A two-leg moneyline parlay featuring two of tonight’s favorites. It pays +201.

 Source link

Back to top button
SoundCloud To Mp3