MLB

The best post-trade deadline MLB futures bets to make

The Carson Wentz trade is not working out well for the Indianapolis Colts. Wentz, whom the Colts gave up two draft picks for during the offseason, suffered a foot injury in camp. The team announced Monday that Wentz would undergo surgery for the injury and is out between five and 12 weeks, which is one hell of a timetable.

If it’s only five weeks, Wentz could conceivably be ready for the regular season, or more likely only miss a game or two. If it’s 12 weeks, we’re talking early November. So not only is it a problem for the season, but the timetable also makes figuring out how to handle Wentz’s injury more complicated.

If you think he’ll be out for five weeks, you probably don’t want to spend any more draft capital to find a capable replacement, but if he’s going to be out 12 weeks, you almost have to.

Of course, the ultimate irony would be if the Colts traded picks to the Chicago Bears for Nick Foles, and Foles once again showed up somewhere to replace an injured Carson Wentz. I’m not sure what the Colts will do; I’m just happy that for once in my existence, I get to laugh at another team’s QB situation while feeling unreasonably confident about my own team’s QB situation.

And now for tonight’s picks, which will be a bit different than what you’re used to.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Phillies at Nationals, 7:05 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Nationals (+101)
: We have a limited MLB slate tonight, and, as you’ll see when you get to tonight’s DFS section, it’s not exactly filled with exciting pitching matchups. Frankly, there’s not much value to be found at all, and things are further complicated by a lot of teams looking different now than they did on Friday morning. Still, my numbers indicate some value on the Nats as a home dog in this spot.

Josiah Gray will make his Nationals debut tonight. He’s one of the players who came to Washington in the Max Scherzer and Trea Turner trade. Gray doesn’t have much MLB experience, but his time in the minors suggests he’s very capable of missing bats with his fastball and two functional breaking balls in his slider and curve. The Phillies are strikeout-prone on offense and are sending Ranger Suarez to the mound as tonight’s starter. Suarez has appeared in 27 games for Philly this season, but this will be his first start, and I wouldn’t anticipate much more than one turn in the order before he hands the ball to a bullpen that has been bad all season long.

Key Trend: The Nats have won 13 of the last 18 meetings in Washington.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: We have dueling expert picks on this game at SportsLine! Zack Cimini is a genius and agrees with me, while Justin Perri is on the Phillies. If you aren’t sure which side to take, the Advanced Computer Model prefers a play on the total.


💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB Futures

The Pick: Rays to win AL East (-115) — With a limited slate tonight, and the trade deadline passed, it seems like a good time to explore the futures market once again, and this would be my favorite play of all. Before the season began, I told you to take out futures on the Red Sox making the playoffs and the Yankees to win the World Series, but we didn’t pick anybody to win the division.

Well, the Red Sox got off to a red-hot start but have come back down to Earth a bit recently, and the Rays just took the division lead. My numbers have suggested the Rays were the better team all along, and the Rays improved at the deadline. Let’s take advantage of a bunch of Yankees fans buying back into their team following all their trades and get this value on the Rays. My numbers suggest they should be closer to -150, so if I can get them at -115, there’s no way I can pass it up.

The Pick: Rays to win World Series (+1400) — There’s not as much value here as there is on the division future, but the Rays are a team overlooked by the general betting market. They have a capable offense and excellent pitching. Also, while fielding metrics can be a bit wonky, the Rays lead all of baseball in the Outs Above Average metric. So, they can hit, they can pitch, and they can field. Those three things are all essential parts of baseball and come in handy during the playoffs! Also, let’s not forget how close this team was to winning it all last year.

The Pick: Braves to win NL East (+475) — So the NL East is a mess. We already know about this newsletter’s NL Least Principle that nobody in the division should be favored against anybody else within the division (Go Nats!). The Mets are the only team with a record above .500 at the moment, but they also have a -7 run differential. There’s only one team with a positive run differential in the division, and that team is the Braves.

The Braves were written off — with good reason — when they lost Ronald Acuña for the season, but they added a couple of significant bats to their lineup with Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario. On the other side, the Mets found out they’ll be without Jacob deGrom for a bit longer than anticipated, and they’re more vulnerable than they’ve been at any point. I know many of you took a Mets to win the division future with me before the season began, and I understand if you don’t want to hedge against it. But while I think the Mets hang on more often than not, this price on Atlanta has plenty of value in it.

The Pick: Brewers to win World Series (+1200) — The Brewers offense isn’t great, but the Brewers have a starting rotation and a bullpen that can win playoff series with a minimal amount of offense. That makes them dangerous, and if a guy like Christian Yelich rediscovers his MVP form, the Brewers suddenly become a serious threat in the postseason. It also doesn’t hurt that they don’t seem to be facing any imminent threat within the division, which could give them the opportunity to keep guys fresh for the postseason down the stretch.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model has an A-graded money line play on tonight’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants.


💸 The DFS Rundown


Getty Images

It’s a rough pitching slate out there tonight.

Top Three Starters

Value Starter

Today’s Top Stack

Value Hitter


 ⚾ Monday Night Odds Boost

If you check the odds boosts section at Caesar’s Sportsbook you’ll find tonight’s choice. 

  • Anthony Rizzo to hit a HR and the Yankees to win (+450)



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