MLB

Phillies vs. Mets odds, line: 2021 MLB picks, Sunday Night Baseball predictions for Sept. 19 from top model

The NL East has provided intrigue throughout the season and a primetime matchup awaits on Sunday Night Baseball. The New York Mets will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies for a nationally televised matchup, with both teams still alive in the playoff chase. Both the Phillies and Mets are attempting to chase down the Atlanta Braves for the division lead. Sunday’s matchup represents the series finale between the two teams and the final matchup of the 2021 season between Philadelphia and New York. 

First pitch is at 7 p.m. ET in New York. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Mets as a -121 favorite on the money line, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8.5 in the latest Phillies vs. Mets odds. Before you make any Mets vs. Phillies picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is 185-158 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 24 weeks in the 2021 season, returning over $400. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league’s last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Phillies vs. Mets picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see its MLB picks. Here are the MLB odds today and betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies:

  • Phillies vs. Mets money line: Mets -121, Phillies +110
  • Phillies vs. Mets over-under: 8.5 runs
  • Phillies vs. Mets run line: Mets -1.5 (+170)
  • PHI: The Phillies are 4-5 in games started by Kyle Gibson
  • NYM: The Mets are 4-6 in games started by Rich Hill

Featured Game | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Why you should back the Phillies

New York’s offense has struggled throughout the season. The Mets have scored fewer than 600 runs during the entire season, ranking as one of only three teams in the National League to fall short of that mark. New York is also a bottom-five team in the National League in hits, doubles, slugging percentage and OPS (on-base plus slugging), with the Mets rarely generating surplus value on the basepaths through stolen bases or taking the extra base. 

The Phillies can also take solace in sending a quality starting pitcher to the mound in primetime. Kyle Gibson holds a 3.49 ERA in 165 innings of work in 2021, and he allowed only one earned run in his only start against this New York team this season. Gibson is particularly difficult for right-handed batters to deal with, holding foes to a woeful .290 slugging percentage. He consistently induces grounders off the bat of opponents (51.7 percent groundball rate), and Gibson matches up well with the Mets.

Why you should back the Mets

New York is installed as the favorite in part due to their success at home when compared to Philadelphia’s relative struggles on the road. Beyond that obvious advantage, the Mets have a very strong starting pitcher in Rich Hill. The 41-year-old elder statesman has a sparkling 2.12 ERA in September and, for the season, Hill’s 3.88 ERA over 144 innings is significantly better than the league average. He has stellar control, walking fewer than three batters per nine innings, and left-handed hitters have a paltry .184 batting average against him. 

Offensively, the Mets haven’t been spectacular in 2021, but they do have a juicy matchup against the Philadelphia bullpen. The Phillies enter Saturday’s showdown with an ugly 4.74 ERA for the season and, according to wins above replacement (WAR), Philadelphia has a bottom-five relief corps in Major League Baseball this season.

How to make Mets vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, as the simulations project both teams combine for 8.2 runs. The model also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get its Sunday Night Baseball picks at SportsLine

So who wins Phillies vs. Mets? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see the top picks for Mets vs. Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks in 2021. 



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