MLB

MLB Home Run Derby betting odds, picks: Will Shohei Ohtani take down stacked field?

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DENVER — The 2021 Home Run Derby is set to take place Monday, July 12 in Coors Field at 8 p.m. ET (. The field is set with an incredibly fun eight-player bracket. Here’s how to watch the event. And here are the first-round matchups. 

Before the bracket was revealed, I picked Trevor Story to win since Coors is his home and I feel like the hometown players get some extra juice under this format from the fans. Looking at this thing, though, I’m just not seeing it. He’ll be very hard pressed to get by the ridiculously powerful Gallo in the first round. Gallo can “miss” and still hit it out of the park. He’s that strong. In fact, let’s run down some odds and props. All odds courtesy of William Hill. Best of fortune to all gamblers. 

Here are the current odds to win the 2021 Home Run Derby

Home Run Derby odds

  • Shohei Ohtani: +300
  • Joey Gallo: +450
  • Pete Alonso: +500
  • Matt Olson: +600
  • Salvador Perez: +800
  • Juan Soto: +800
  • Trevor Story: +900
  • Trey Mancini: +1200

Overall winner: Gallo +450

Ohtani is the favorite at +300 and it makes a lot of sense. He’s likely to put on an absolute show. I’m hitching my wagon to Gallo, though. Don’t worry about regular season numbers or anything. This is glorified batting practice and even pitchers rake in BP. Gallo is one of the strongest players in the league with off-the-charts raw power. Of course, there are several in this field that also qualify, but he stands above for me. He’ll be steady in the first two rounds and then go berserk in the finals. 

Longshot value: Mancini +1200

You like a feel-good story? Mancini missed last season with cancer. He said he wanted to do this event, “to show people that there is life after a cancer diagnosis and after chemotherapy.” C’mon. How can you not root for him? He has plenty of raw power and it seems pretty likely no one in the event will have more motivation and adrenaline. 

Story at +900 is good value as well. I just don’t think he can get by Gallo in the first round.

Longest home run: Ohtani +400

Gallo is the favorite at +375, but we’ll go with Ohtani pumping one up into the top deck in right field. Those are the two most likely picks, though Alonso at +450 isn’t bad value either. 

Longest home run over/under 510.5 feet: Over

You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts! Word is the balls being used for the Derby have not been stored in the notorious humidor. It’s going to be hot and sunny and won’t yet be dark. The ball is going to freaking soar. Ohtani and/or Gallo are gonna top this. I know it deep in my heart, I’m telling you! 

Finals outcome: Gallo over Ohtani +1000

Can we really call the exact finals outcome? If so, the odds are great even for the favorites to get there. The longest odds? Any combination of Soto, Perez and Mancini in the finals pays +5000. I like Gallo and Ohtani to steal the show, however. 



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