Contrary to what the big man himself may want you to believe, the 2020 presidential election is over. President Donald Trump was beaten in his quest for re-election by Democratic challenger Joe Biden, who was deemed to be the unofficial winner by a variety of media organizations last weekend.
While Trump hasn’t yet conceded and the official election results won’t be certified until next month, Biden will be the next president. He’ll take the Oath of Office at noon on January 20, and Trump will leave his post whether he likes it or not.
Trump did just become the third incumbent president to lose his re-election bid since 1980, but it’s safe to assume he won’t just go quietly into the night. “Trump” and “quiet” do not belong in the same sentence together. The likely outcome is that Trump will never officially concede the race, and he’ll ultimately leave the White House despite loudly proclaiming the election was stolen from him.
Trump being denied a second term in 2020 means he is still eligible to run again if he wants to. The US Constitution says that any president may serve for a maximum of two terms, but those terms don’t have to be consecutive. Grover Cleveland served two non-consecutive terms as president before the current two-term maximum was installed.
The 2020 election may be done with, but political betting sites are already taking bets on what may happen in the future. BetOnline, for example, has already posted odds for the 2024 presidential election. Trump is among the many names you’ll see with listed odds to both secure the Republican nomination and ultimately win the presidency four years from now.
Is Trump a viable long shot betting option to run and win again in ’24?
Trump “Considering” Another Run
If there’s one thing we know about the current president, it’s that he likes the spotlight. There are plenty of mysteries surrounding Trump, but his thirst for attention cannot be disputed.
It’s also worth noting that, even in an eventual defeat, Trump is going to have earned the second-most votes in the history of a presidential election. The president has earned over 73 million votes and counting as of this writing. Biden may eventually top 80 million, but that’s still quite an impressive showing from Trump despite a presidency that has been plagued by a seemingly endless array of scandals.
The US is a pretty divided country these days, to say the least. There’s a reason his national approval rating has never really dipped below 40 percent since the start of his term. In spite of all of the apparent chaos, Trump’s base of support remains steady.
NEW: Trump has already told advisers he’s thinking about running again in 2024https://t.co/4yA5s99XqY
— Axios (@axios) November 9, 2020
Axios reported on Monday that Trump has privately told advisers that he is considering mounting another charge for the White House in 2024. Despite losing to Biden, Trump is likely to maintain quite a bit of clout within the Republican Party thanks to the fact that he still fared decently well in the 2020 election.
If he does so, Trump would become the first president to run again after losing his initial re-election shot. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who has become a close confidant of Trump during his term, has already said that he should run again if he loses in 2020. Former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has also said that Trump “absolutely” should run again in four years.
As of now, BetOnline has Trump at +900 to earn the Republican nomination in ’24.
What Does Another Trump Run Mean for Other Republican Candidates?
While Trump didn’t face much opposition from within the Republican Party when he decided to seek re-election, his path to the nomination in 2024 surely won’t be without its fair share of obstacles.
Of course, Trump isn’t the only Republican that has an eye on a run for the White House in the future. It is already fairly common knowledge that people like Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, and Nikki Haley have higher political aspirations in the future. Interestingly, Pence and Haley (+350 apiece) are tied for the best odds of any candidates to earn the Republican nomination in the next election.
I’m sure Rubio, Haley, and DeSantis are delighted to hear Trump is going to run again in 2024
— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) November 5, 2020
Pompeo, who has thrown his support behind Trump’s legal challenges in this election, has dropped to +5000. Other potential candidates to run are John Kasich (+800), Josh Hawley (+800), Ted Cruz (+800), Tom Cotton (+1200), and Tim Scott (+1200).
I wouldn’t expect any of those potential candidates to simply get out of Trump’s way if he decides to seek another term, but his massive popularity among Republican voters will complicate things for any challengers. Detractors will point to Trump’s loss this year as evidence that he shouldn’t run again in 2024 for the good of the future of the Republican Party. Trump, of course, doesn’t really care about the Republican Party. He’s in it for himself.
It’s hard to imagine any of these establishment-type candidates beating Trump to the nomination if he decides to run. We saw back in 2016 when Trump laid waste to the likes of Cruz and Marco Rubio during the primary that he may well be able to cruise his way to another nomination.
If he decides to formally throw his hat into the ring, Trump will instantly become the heavy frontrunner to win the Republican nomination. As a result, taking a flier on his current +900 odds to be the nominee makes for an awesome value bet. Those odds are likely going to get less profitable from here, so you might as well jump on them while you still can.
What’s Standing In Trump’s Way?
While Trump may have plenty of interest in another run, there are a few challenges he’ll have to beat first. First off, let’s not forget that he’s already 74, which means he’ll be even older than Biden is right now by the time Election Day rolls around in 2024.
Trump isn’t really in the greatest physical condition these days, so it’ll be interesting to see how he’s holding up four years from now. Father Time comes for everyone. It’s far from unfathomable to think that Trump just may not be physically fit enough to run for another four-year term by then.
There is also a very strong chance that Trump will face all sorts of legal issues between now and then. He hasn’t been charged with anything during his time in the White House, but we have seen strong indications that some civil and criminal charges may be waiting for him the second he leaves office.
Trump’s personal finances have been under investigation in New York for quite some time. New York Attorney General Letitia James has also announced tax investigations into both Trump and the Trump Organization. There are also separate investigations coming out of Washington DC and Maryland into whether Trump has unlawfully used his perch in the presidency to benefit his own finances. The president is also being sued for defamation by two women that have accused him of sexual assault. And that’s not all. Not by a longshot.
Needless to say, Trump may have quite a few legal hurdles to clear between now and 2024 if he hopes to sell the American people on voting for him again in four years.
Can Trump Win in 2024?
Trump’s ability to win the 2024 election hinges on a lot of things. He has his own personal issues to deal with, and we will also see whether the ’24 election winds up being a referendum on the upcoming Biden/Harris administration.
One would imagine the Democrats will be favored to win the White House again in 2024. Despite Trump’s own failure to win in 2020, incumbents are historically difficult to beat in presidential elections. While Biden himself may not seek re-election, there is plenty of reason to believe Kamala Harris will look to rise to the top of the Democratic ticket.
“Kamala Harris is absolutely prepared to be president.”
Christine Pelosi, Chair of the California Democratic Party Women’s Caucus, says the vice president-elect Kamala Harris is in a strong position to be the Democrats next presidential nominee in 2024.https://t.co/9UFQKjm3u7 pic.twitter.com/qytaIisoX2
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) November 7, 2020
As of now, you can get Trump at +2000 to win the presidency again in 2024. While I do have plenty of reservations about the possibility that he even runs again, the current value is just too good to ignore. Winning presidential elections in the future won’t get any easier for Republicans with states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina seemingly trending in favor of Democrats, but the Electoral College system still skews the odds in favor of the GOP.
As things stand, the best value looks to be Trump to win the Republican nomination again in 2024 at +900.
Until we see another Republican actually step up and beat him, I’m just going to assume Trump will continue to reign supreme within the party. I’m much more skeptical of his chances of actually winning the general election, but a wager on Trump to rise to the top of the Republican ticket again in 2024 is very interesting.
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